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Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting
climate changes decision-making tools estimation of parameters forecasted outputs gamma distribution predicting yields
2015/11/26
Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of the research was to build a model...
Modeling and forecasting volatility in global food commodity prices
volatility forecast fat-tail distribution food commodities
2014/2/27
To capture the volatility in the global food commodity prices, we employed two competing models, the thin tailed the normal distribution, and the fat-tailed Student t-distribution models. Results base...