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Black swans or dragon kings? A simple test for deviations from the power law
test deviations power law great natural disasters financial crashes electricity price spikes
2011/3/23
We develop a simple test for deviations from power law tails, which is based on the asymptotic properties of the empirical distribution function. We use this test to answer the question whether great ...
GDP Trend Deviations and the Yield Spread: the Case of Five E.U. Countries
GDP Deviations Yield Spread E.U. Countries
2010/10/20
Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety of E.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy...