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We study the variability of predictions made by bagged learners and random forests, and show how to estimate standard errors for these methods. Our work builds on variance estimates for bagging propos...
Adaptive confidence intervals for regression functions are constructed under shape constraints of monotonicity and convexity. A natural benchmark is established for the minimum expected length of conf...
Consider a linear regression model with n-dimensional response vector, p-dimensional regression parameter beta and independent normally distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is th...
In Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (AMCMC) simulation, classical estimators of asymptotic variances are inconsistent in general. In this work we establish that despite this inconsistency, confidence...
Asymptotic multivariate normality for the subseries values of a general statistic form a stationary sequence - with applications to nonparametric confidence intervals
We consider the construction of unconditional bootstrap- t prediction intervals for stationary time series. Our approach relies on the sieve bootstrap resampling scheme introduced by Biihlmann. Ba...
In this paper, we develop a general theory on the coverage probability of random inter- vals defined in terms of discrete random variables with continuous parameter spaces. The theory shows that the...
This paper describes an R package implementing large sample tests and confidence intervals (based on the central limit theorem) for various parameters. The one and two sample mean and variance conte...
We consider independent random variables (r.v.’s) with a common mean μ that either satisfy Lindeberg’s condition, or are symmetric around μ. Present forms of existing functional central limit theore...
In this short note, we show how to use concentration inequalities in order to build exact confidence intervals for the Hurst parameter associated with a one-dimensional fractional Brownian motion.
Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox (1994, p.319) modify an estimative prediction limit to obtain an improved prediction limit with better coverage properties. Kabaila and Syuhada (2008) present a simulation-...
In this short preliminary note I apply the methodology of gametheoretic probability to calculating non-asymptotic confidence intervals for the coefficient of a simple first order scalar autoregressi...
We study an AMOC time series model with an abrupt change in the mean and dependent errors that fulfill certain mixing conditions. We obtain confidence intervals for the unknown change-point via boot...

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